October 9, 2016. 30 days until America elects its next president. An exit poll from CNN following the second US presidential election debate revealed a crushing 57% to 34% defeat for Donald Trump.
Hilary Clinton’s team glibly retweeted the image and 32,000 people showed their approval by liking the post. Every major pollster and mainstream media outlet in America and Europe now predicts Clinton’s White House backing to prove too much. Hell, even Trump’s own party are turning against him. So us conservatives, libertarians and republicans should just accept defeat, right?
Wrong. After all, how many Trump supporters are ever likely to watch a mainstream media channel such as CNN let alone take part in the after show voting? The answer is very few if any. If the UK’s referendum on the European Union taught us anything, it’s that pollsters are largely redundant in this new political sphere now unravelling before our very eyes.
The last YouGov poll before Brexit suggested a four point lead to Remain. Most of the official polls, both online and via telephone in the weeks leading up to the vote, had also shown healthy leads for the so-called status quo. We now know the exact opposite to have been true.
Yet the undeniable trend sweeping Europe and now the United States of America is that of a divided population. The core Trump vote is completely disenfranchised with mainstream politics and media – many won’t have voted for decades. They are part of the shy society which has been ignored and taken for granted by the political class for so long.
Many citizens, American and British, have seen their wages undercut by cheap labour and their neighbourhoods and town centres changed beyond recognition thanks to uncontrolled, mass immigration. When objection is raised these people are labelled ignorant, uneducated, xenophobic and Islamophobic. They are shutdown and dismissed by sneering so-called intellectuals. The only voice they have left is their voice at the polls – so expect people who have never entered a polling station in their lives to turn out in force next month. Polling companies and statisticians simply cannot monitor or predict the scale of this uprising. Nobody can. These people are invisible as far as society is concerned.
Clinton, both Hilary and Bill, embody everything which ignites the raw emotion in these people. They are part of an establishment which has waded into foreign wars without consent, allowed inner cities to decay while immigration continues to rise, and broken political promise after political promise. What else do these people have to lose?
And, if we’re being completely honest, Trump himself is far from the ideal republican candidate. His secretly recorded comments about groping women are pretty horrific (banter or no banter) and throughout the campaign he has often tied himself in knots when it comes to policy – even his own campaign team would admit he’s about as far from a polished speaker as you are ever likely to meet.
But that is part of his appeal. While Clinton is a far more competent speaker, that equals deception in the eyes of many of his core voters. Deception, more false promises and lies. They see a media castigating Trump over his words, while four brave women speaking out against husband Bill’s alleged actions (namely sexual abuse) are completely glossed over. As are thousands of dodgy, deleted emails. Just where is the level playing field? This is no conspiracy theory in the eyes of millions.
Trump is brash, makes mistakes, and hasn’t offered many solid policies. But what he does offer is change. He offers an alternative to the power hungry elite which has presided over this gradual yet undeniable divide in American society for so long. As Trump has stated many times: “If Hilary wins, what will change? Nothing.” And in that sense, he’s right, and it’s his most effective selling point. It doesn’t matter how many video tapes are leaked from his past – those who intend to vote Trump will vote for him regardless.
The historic Brexit vote in June sent shockwaves far wider than Britain and has set a precedent for others to follow. Then, it was people in the industrial heartlands of Sunderland and Dudley who signalled their utter disconnect with Westminster politics and a distrust of the political class. Soon it will be ordinary Americans in Ohio and Wisconsin with an opportunity to send a similar verdict to Washington and the world. One thing is for absolute certain: CNN won’t be on the screens in republican heartlands whatever the result on November 8…